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p5y66
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Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-11
6yo: 3-4-27
7yo: 4-8-42
8yo: 2-5-40
9yo: 1-5-20
10yo+: 0-0-19
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented 64% of the total runners.
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-66
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-16-93
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 94504FPP65 (0-1-10)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 6-11-55
Horses rated 136 to 145: 4-7-73
Horses rated 135 or less: 0-8-31
6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 34.6% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 5 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were second season chasers (3 more experienced chasers had all won at grade 2 level)
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Cheltenham or Carlisle
Other Races
Zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Billie Magern): 1F43F28 (1-3-7)
Previous year’s December Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 125 (1-1-3)
Centenary Novice H’cap Chase winner (Divers): 1F (1-0-2)
Betfred The Bonus King H’cap Chase winner (Hector’s Choice): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 84 (0-1-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 2P (0-1-2)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 9 (0-0-1)
Murphy Group H’cap Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 470 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Holmwood Legend): 477PP6 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase at previous year’s meeting, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Jewson Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s December Gold Cup, finishing 1F
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival
Trainers
The Pipe stable (4-2-20) have ed for 4 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 4 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-8) has only had one placed finisher from 8 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) has been the trainer to follow in recent years, saddling the winner in 08 & 10 and filling one of the places in 07 & 09.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-12), Ferdy Murphy (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the last 10 years.
Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) trained Tranquil Sea to win in 2009.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-7), Paul Nicholls (0-4-17) and Alan King (0-3-7) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2001
Irish based trainers (1-1-16) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2001 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 9.25.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-13+
• Officially rated 146 or higher
• Having first or second run of the season
• Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
• Previously run less than 10 times over fences
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in no more than 2)
• Second season chaser
• Trained in Great Britain
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
• Favourite does well
